Summary Bitcoin remains a compelling bull case within the broader market, offering diversification beyond strong-performing US equities. BTC continues to serve as a speculative investment to balance a portfolio that includes non-US stocks, municipal bonds, and gold. Despite skepticism, maintaining a 'buy' rating on BTC earlier in 2025 proved to be the right decision as performance has validated this stance. Trust in traditional banking and government is another tailwind for BTC and other crypto assets. Main Thesis and Background The purpose of this article is to evaluate the broader market as a whole, with a particular focus on why I see a continued bull case for Bitcoin USD ( BTC-USD ). This has been a speculative investment for me as my US equities holdings continue to grow in terms of overall allocation within my portfolio, driven by their strong performance. To balance this out, over time, I have been building positions in non-US stocks, munis, gold, and, of course, BTC. This is not a new idea for me, as it was highlighted earlier in 2025 (and many times before that). Back in May, I suggested BTC's bull case was still intact. Despite receiving some flak for that call , hindsight shows that giving the asset a "buy" rating was the correct move indeed: Performance Since Last Article (Seeking Alpha) Clearly, this is a great return in the short run. But it is important to note that BTC is now sitting near its all-time high, which may give some investors pause or at least a concern that a pullback may be near: BTC: 5 Year Chart (Google Finance) I would personally understand a feeling of general caution here. That is relatable given how high BTC has risen—and how quickly. My followers know I don't blindly pump investments I have suggested in the past, as is so often seen on the internet. BTC's run-up during this bull market could have some wanting to take profits, and I wouldn't fault anyone for that line of thinking. However, I see more gains on the cards. I think the fundamental backstory that has propelled BTC higher remains in place today. This suggests there is room for it to run further still, and I will discuss those factors in this review. The bottom line is that I feel maintaining a "buy" rating on this asset is still the right call going forward. Driver #1: Fall of the US Dollar Perhaps the strongest case for BTC right now is the weakness in the US dollar ((USD)). This has been helping to push commodities, metals, crypto (and stocks for that matter) to new highs. This has been a fairly consistent trend this calendar year and actually accelerated after Q1: Value of USD (Morningstar) Since BTC is priced in USD, it stands to reason that a declining USD value is going to mean more USDs are required to purchase one bitcoin. That is indeed what has been happening—with some blips along the way—and investors in this space have been rewarded accordingly. The good news for holders of BTC is that I anticipate further weakening in the year ahead. The Fed has already begun a rate-cutting cycle, and the Fed's "Dot Plot" suggests rates are going to fall further going into 2026: Fed Dot Plot (Federal Reserve) This is central to why I am keeping a bullish stance. The USD's weakness has helped fuel BTC's rise, and the weakness is not likely to reverse course any time soon. If the Fed continues to cut rates, the USD will be "cheaper". This bodes well for BTC and other crypto assets. Importantly, it is also true for other hard assets such as gold, silver, copper, oil, and many others, but the focus of this piece is BTC specifically. Driver #2: Trust In Government Has Eroded A second reason BTC has been so popular has to do with public sentiment. This is the growing distrust in government, financial institutions, and the monetary system more broadly. People are beginning to become skeptics of fiat currency—both in the US and around the world—and this has opened the door for alternative forms of payment/currency like BTC to become popular. Importantly, this is not a "new" trend, but it is one that has accelerated in recent years. Coinciding with BTC's origination and adoption, we see that trust in the US government among US citizens has been in a downward spiral and has bottomed out in the past few years: Public Trust In Government Declining Over Time (Pew Research Center) What this is showing is the public's view that the government should do the "right" thing, regardless of the circumstance, is quite dismal. This extends to the money supply because the government is controlling how tax dollars are spent (Congress) and monetary policy as a whole (the Federal Reserve). Given how disgruntled the public is with these institutions, it should not be a surprise to see a rebellious asset like BTC rise in popularity. Furthermore, we should remember that BTC is a global asset. So sentiment in the US alone is not necessarily enough to drive its price higher. But the "good" news is that distrust in financial institutions extends beyond our borders. Europeans are not exactly confident in their largest banks either: European Distrust of Financial Institutions (Edelman Smithfield) The conclusion I draw is that the trust element driving the rise of alternative currencies is as relevant today as it has been over the last decade. Individuals continue to lose confidence and faith in their elected leaders and financial institutions, which extends to those who control the money supply. With this sentiment in place, it remains a catalyst to push assets like BTC higher yet. Driver #3: Skeptics Have Shifted To Adoption My third point is how BTC has now become more mainstream. This has been driven by large banks and platforms with legitimate standing in the financial industry allowing their clients to own and trade it, the creation of new products (such as ETFs) to track it, and seeing the leaders of these institutions having shifted their rhetoric regarding BTC and crypto more broadly. A classic example is JPMorgan Chase & Co. ( JPM ) CEO Jamie Dimon. Many readers may remember the following statement from 2024: "If you mean crypto like bitcoin, I've always said it's a fraud. If they think they're a currency, there's no hope for it. It's a Ponzi scheme." Source: Yahoo Finance Fast forward to today and JPM offers clients numerous ways to access the currency. While Mr. Dimon is not wholly converted into a believer, the shift is notable in that his firm is adopting it in a way that adds legitimacy to the asset, as shown in more recent headlines: CNBC Headline (CNBC) This shift (in not such a long time period) helps to demonstrate how far we have come in terms of acceptance of this asset. Further, it isn't just "retail" investors driving up the price or getting interested. Institutional players, such as the State of Michigan Retirement System, have begun to make significant investments in the space. In fact, Michigan's retirement plan has invested $6.6 million in BTC alone, according to regulatory filings, which were reported by Reuters. And I will reiterate that it is this combination of both retail buyers and institutional buyers that is supporting higher prices. This is a momentum play if I have ever seen one. As more ETFs come on to market, and the ones that are already in the market grow, custodians of BTC (and other crypto assets) have to buy more to legitimize their offerings to the public. This compounding effect is driving inflows into the ETFs that track BTC and helping to fuel price gains throughout 2025: ETF Fund Flows (BTC and Ether) (Bloomberg) My takeaway is that the "herd" is just getting started. The trend has been clear since early May—buyers are pouring into crypto ETFs. In my view it is a hard argument to make that this enthusiasm is going to reverse course any time soon. The ETFs are gaining in popularity and the recent highs in Bitcoin are probably going to encourage more fresh buying as the masses will fear "missing out". I simply view this movement into funds that track BTC as overwhelmingly positive for the asset and the broader sector. With this trend accelerating, I see more gains ahead in the short term. Bottom Line BTC has been one of my best calls and that status continued with my bullish review in May. Since then, BTC has been a top-performing asset, outpacing the S&P 500 and many other categories. In this review, I laid out three key reasons I think more gains are ahead and I will be monitoring the asset carefully as we wrap up 2025. I would encourage my followers to give this idea some consideration at this time.
