Crypto snapped back on Monday as a diplomatic cool-down between Washington and Beijing helped erase part of Friday’s historic wipeout. Total crypto market cap jumped roughly 5%, with over $550 billion flowing back into digital assets after a panic sparked by talk of 100% U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed $115,000 (+3%), Ethereum (ETH) climbed to $4,142 (+8.2%), and XRP traded near $2.54. High-beta majors joined the rebound: BNB surged 14% and Solana (SOL) gained 7%. Trade War Fears Ease as China Clarifies Export Rules and Trump Softens Tone The bid returned as China’s Ministry of Commerce clarified its rare-earth export controls are legal but not a ban, with compliant civilian applications to be approved. President Donald Trump also struck a more conciliatory tone, posting that the U.S. wants to “help China, not hurt it,” easing fears of a near-term trade war escalation. The shift follows the largest crypto liquidation on record, over $19–$20 billion in 24 hours, as over-levered longs were flushed in Friday’s cascade. Prediction markets now price sharply lower odds of full tariffs by Nov. 1, aligning with Monday’s broad risk-on bounce. Institutions Buy The Dip As ETF Momentum Steadies From a deeper perspective, the flows stayed constructive. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw only minor daily outflows ($4.5M on Friday) and remain net positive by nearly $6B for October, signaling continuing institutional demand via regulated vehicles. On-chain watchers also flagged Marathon Digital adding 400 BTC ($46M) through FalconX in early Monday trade, consistent with treasuries opportunistically accumulating into weakness. Sentiment gauges improved from “extreme fear,” while social data on Stocktwits flipped bullish for BTC, with some traders eyeing a retest of $140K if macro tailwinds persist. Levels To Watch: Support, Resistance, And Catalysts Technically, BTC’s swift recovery places $114,000–$117,000 as near-term support, with resistance layered around $121,000–$126,000 (the recent ATH zone). ETH faces supply near $4,200–$4,300, while XRP watchers highlight $2.60–$2.65 as a hurdle to unlock momentum toward $3.00. Macro remains the key swing factor, as any renewed tariff saber-rattling or U.S. data surprises (especially amid a patchy government-statistics calendar) could reignite volatility. Conversely, sustained ETF inflows, improving liquidity, and calmer U.S.–China rhetoric continue to support a base-building environment heading into Q4. Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview
