In late April, Bitcoin price staged a dramatic recovery from a low of $74,000 to close the month at $94,181 on April 30, marking a 27% gain in the period and aligning with the Stock-to-Flow model’s projected path. Institutional signals also picked up as reports surfaced that Morgan Stanley may add spot crypto trading on its E*TRADE platform, potentially opening the market to new inflows, according to a Bloomberg report. Meanwhile, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) announced plans to raise $21 billion in equity, with part earmarked for additional Bitcoin purchases, underpinning direct corporate demand. The combined technical and fundamental backdrop sets the stage for May’s test: can BTC clear resistance and reclaim its all-time highs? Bitcoin Price Technical Turnaround in April Bitcoin broke out of a descending channel and pennant in mid-April, a bullish sign usually followed by further gains. The cryptocurrency avoided a “death cross”—where the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day—suggesting sustained bullish pressure. BTC/USDT Price Chart|Source: Crypto Caesar X BTC formed a double-bottom near $76,560 and decisively reclaimed $88,830, reinforcing a key support zone. On April 23, BTC surged past $92,892 for the first time since early March, a rise of over 23% from the month’s low. However, trading volumes trailed price action, which could temper extensions above $100,000. Critical levels to watch in May include resistance at $100,000 and $107,000, and support near $92,000 and $85,000. Institutional and Policy Drivers Spot-Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $2.9 billion in April, lifting cumulative year-to-date flows past $39 billion. Speculation that Morgan Stanley will enable spot trading via E*TRADE could unlock retail and high-net-worth demand. Strategy’s equity raise plan covers $21 billion, with new BTC acquisitions projected on current holdings of 553,555 coins . This corporate appetite adds roughly $5.8 billion in unrealized gains to Strategy’s Bitcoin position so far in 2025. The Trump administration’s proposal for a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve remains a wild card, though initial market responses were muted in April. That reserve plan could position the U.S. government as a large holder of seized assets, with about 198,000 BTC already in its coffers. Historically, May has averaged gains of around 7.4% from 2013–2024, though with wide variance and occasional corrections (median return just under 1%). When Bitcoin clears its prior highs in late April, May rallies have tended to extend through portfolio rebalancing and liquidity rotations. Expert Signals and On-Chain Indicators PlanB’s S2F model predicted a “dump before pump” pattern in early April; the 27% rebound to $94,181 confirms that thesis. On-chain data from Glassnode shows an MVRV golden cross—a bullish metric indicating overvaluation is easing—which historically precedes price surges. By April 8, BTC bottomed at $74,000—a nearly 30% drawdown from January’s $109,000 peak—then rallied 24% to mid-$90,000s within weeks. Analysts at Standard Chartered see a path to $120,000 in Q2 2025 if ETF flows and tariff relief persist. CryptoQuant’s scenarios range up to $175,000 or a dip back to $70,000–$85,000; current data favors the bullish case. “Titan of Crypto” set a mid-year target of $137,000, citing U.S. liquidity injections and ETF momentum. A sustained break above $100,000 would likely trigger fresh FOMO and institutional buy-ins. Holding above $92,000 would validate the late-April support zone and guard against deeper retracements. Traders must monitor U.S. trade policy, Federal Reserve rate-cut cues, and regulatory clarity on spot BTC products. In sum, Bitcoin enters May on firmer footing than most cycles, bolstered by a technical breakout, institutional catalysts, and on-chain momentum. The next hurdle—clearing $100,000—will determine whether BTC can renew its all-time high quest.
