Solana ETF Sparks Price Jump but Long-Term Rally in Doubt

Solana’s native token SOL jumped 7% on Monday following confirmation of the launch of the first Solana ETF featuring staking capabilities. The new product, set to debut Wednesday, ignited a wave of optimism among traders, briefly pushing SOL to $161 before settling at $157. Innovative ETF Structure Bypasses SEC Approval The ETF is being introduced by REX Shares in partnership with Osprey Funds. To sidestep the traditional SEC approval process, they created a taxable C-corporation. This structure, common in energy infrastructure investments, allows for quicker rollout but is less tax-efficient, taxing dividends at both the corporate and shareholder levels. Despite the ETF’s novelty, investors tempered expectations, recognizing that similar instruments could easily emerge for other altcoins. Limited Institutional Demand Raises Questions Grayscale’s Solana Trust (GSOL), operating for over two years, manages just $75 million in assets. By comparison, Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust held $10 billion one month before the Ethereum ETF’s launch. This discrepancy suggests that institutional appetite for SOL may be modest, even with the new ETF’s added staking feature. Staking Unlocks and DApp Selling Apply Pressure SOL’s rally faces additional hurdles. Roughly $585 million in SOL will unlock from staking in the next two months, adding potential sell pressure. Major Solana-based DApps have also offloaded significant holdings. In 2025 alone, the token launch platform Pump sent $404 million worth of SOL to exchanges. These sales may explain why SOL has moved in line with ETH and BNB over the past 30 days despite the ETF announcement. Funding Rates and Network Metrics Offer No Strong Support SOL’s annualized funding rate, a key leverage indicator, remains under 10%, indicating muted bullish sentiment. Meanwhile, Solana’s network revenue has plummeted over 90% since January. Even the rise in memecoin activity has failed to restore network health. The launch of tokenized stock trading on Ethereum’s layer-2 solutions, including partnerships with Robinhood and Coinbase, further undermines Solana’s appeal in the high-performance DApp sector. While the ETF has stirred interest, competition and weak fundamentals make a sustained rally above $200 unlikely for now.