Arthur Hayes Predicts Potential 19% Bitcoin Correction Amid Weak Employment Data

The expert expects a decline in the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum due to a sluggish credit market and weak employment growth. Hayes locked in profits by selling more than $13 million worth of cryptocurrency. Some analysts believe that double-digit corrections in price are a thing of the past. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said Bitcoin could fall to $100,000 and Ethereum to $3,000. He said that increased tariffs, stagnant credit markets, and slower job creation are creating an unfavorable backdrop for cryptocurrencies. Hayes noted that the key trigger was the weak growth in non-farm employment in the US. In July 2025, only 73,000 jobs were created in the country, which the analyst regarded as an alarming signal for the economy. Given this context, he decided to take profits by selling Ethereum, Ethena, and PEPE for over $13 million. According to Arkham Intelligence, after these transactions, Hayes's wallet contained $28.3 million in assets, of which $22.95 million was in USDC stablecoins. Hayes stressed that sluggish credit growth in major economies is holding back nominal GDP, which is adding pressure on risky assets. He said that, against this backdrop, Bitcoin risks a deep correction, potentially falling almost 19% below current levels if it drops to $100,000. Bitcoin is already down 7.7% from its all-time high of $123,000 on July 14, according to CoinGecko. Ethereum, meanwhile, has lost 12.5% after recently rallying above $3,900. These declines have fueled speculation about a potential double-digit correction in the coming months. However, not all analysts share Hayes' pessimism. Bloomberg expert Eric Balchunas noted that after BlackRock filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF in 2023, the market has become more stable, without sharp drawdowns. In addition, Blockware Solutions representative Mitchell Askew believes that the era of parabolic rises and devastating falls of Bitcoin is behind us. Meanwhile, CryptoQuant analysts reported that whales were actively accumulating Bitcoin reserves. According to them, it was the opposite trend—a decrease in the volume of cryptocurrency held by large players—that preceded the 2021 market peak.