Summary Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has not yet peaked in this cycle in my opinion, with consolidation suggesting further upside potential. BTC's price lags behind global M2 money supply, indicating room for a catch-up rally to at least $150,000. A bullish divergence on the daily chart and historical RSI patterns support the likelihood of a new all-time high. Investors should be aware of bitcoin's volatility and trading cycles. Despite the sharp sell-off for Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) on Friday October 10, 2025, I see two key set-ups that could drive the price to new all-time highs. I don't think that the peak price has been reached yet in this current price cycle. This price cycle may last longer than the previous two which both lasted 1,064 days from the price bottom to the peak . If this cycle lasts as long as the previous two cycles, we would peak this month in October. However, I don't think we reached the peak yet in this current price cycle. The consolidation period is lasting longer than expected. The price has been consolidating between $100k and the $120k range for a few months now. I think there is more room for bitcoin to rise in this cycle because we haven't seen the RSI increase to the extreme level above 90 yet on the monthly chart. Here's what that looks like: Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Monthly Price Chart w/ RSI & MACD (TradingView) We can see in bitcoin's monthly chart above that the RSI increased above 90 in both of the previous price cycles in 2017 and 2021. This is indicated by the areas shaded in green in the middle of the chart as the purple RSI line moved deep into overbought territory. The RSI has been hovering around the 70 level, which is just touching the overbought level. While there is no guarantee that bitcoin will move deep into overbought territory in this cycle, I do see two key set-ups that indicates that higher prices are likely. Bitcoin Price and Global M2 Money Supply Global M2 Money Supply vs. Bitcoin Price (Bgeometrics.com) The price of bitcoin tends to correlate well with global M2 money supply. In the chart above, the black line in the chart above is the price of bitcoin while the blue line is the global M2 money supply. Notice how the price of bitcoin remained above the M2 money supply line during the previous halving cycles. However, bitcoin has been lagging the global M2 money supply in the current price cycle. I think that the price of bitcoin has some catching up to do. Of course, I can't guarantee that bitcoin will rise above the global M2 money supply line. I do think that bitcoin will close the gap to at least match the global M2 money supply line. Bitcoin has trended well with the M2 line during its lifetime. So, the current gap shows that the price has some catching up to do in my opinion. Bitcoin's Bullish Set-up on the Daily Chart Bitcoin's (BTC-USD) Daily Chart w/ RSI & MACD (TradingView) The second reason why I think bitcoin will move higher from here is due to a bullish divergence between the price and the RSI. This is indicated as the price of bitcoin made a lower low from September 26 to October 10. At the same time, the RSI indicator in the middle of the chart made a higher low. Bullish divergences like this typically indicate a price bottom and a likely reversal from what I have observed. The last bullish divergence on the daily chart occurred between July and August. This one was considered a hidden bullish divergence where the price makes a higher low while the RSI makes a lower low over the same time. This divergence resulted in bitcoin rising from $112k to over $124k. The current bullish set-up could drive bitcoin to test the all-time high. Then, we will have to watch for a potential breakout to a new all-time high. The Risks for Investing in Bitcoin Investors of bitcoin must realize that the price can fluctuate significantly. Even during bull market cycles, the price can have 20% to 30% declines. The price declines during bear markets are much more severe with losses of about 80% from the peak to the bottom. As a result, investors may consider trading bitcoin between the low points and high points over the long-term price cycles to maximize gains. This can be done by studying the monthly chart. Otherwise, having a long-term view and accumulating and holding might be preferable for other investors. It is possible that my theory for a new all-time high won't occur. The current price cycle may have already peaked. The price of bitcoin might decouple from the global M2 money supply. While, I don't think those are likely scenarios, the possibility does exist. Bitcoin's Outlook Bitcoin remains the best performing asset class since its inception. Bitcoin should still have upside in the current price cycle. The price should reach at least $150,000 in this cycle in my opinion. That would be 10x higher than the last price bottom of about $15k. Of course, the price could go higher or top out at a lower price. After the peak of each price cycle has been reached, significant sell-offs of about 80% to 85% have occurred. So, it is possible that this pattern continues. Therefore, those who wish to lock in profits before the likely bear market occurs should attempt to sell near the peak. In the past, this was indicated by the RSI indicator reaching deep into overbought territory above 90. The long term for bitcoin looks positive as the price tends to make new highs after each halving cycle. So, a buy and hold or dollar-cost-averaging strategy can also work for investors.
