Key takeaways: Traders remain cautious about ETH’s price action, but optimistic sentiment is beginning to return. The May 7, Ethereum Pectra upgrade could boost investor sentiment, but ETH’s price action shows investors are still hesitant to open new positions. Ether ( ETH ) has been trading below $1,900 since March, leading investors to question whether the failed attempt to reclaim $4,000 in December 2024 signaled the end of an era for the leading altcoin. Concerns continue to mount as derivatives market data shows that professional traders remain cautious about ETH’s price outlook. ETH monthly futures should trade at a premium of 5% or more compared to spot markets to compensate for the longer settlement period, but this indicator has held below the neutral threshold. Ether 3-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch Part of the lack of enthusiasm stems from disappointment with the United States government, as Ether was classified alongside other altcoins in the “Digital Asset Stockpile” Executive Order on March 6. The Trump administration decided that only Bitcoin ( BTC ) was significant enough to be included in its own “Strategic Reserve.” In practical terms, altcoins already held by the government could be retained, but not newly acquired. Ether's market cap falls below its top four rivals For the first time ever, in April 2025, Ether’s market capitalization dropped below the combined value of its four largest competitors: Solana ( SOL ), BNB, Cardano ( ADA ), and Tron ( TRX ). Ether market cap vs. the sum of SOL, BNB, ADA, TRX. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph After rebounding from lows near $1,400, Ether’s total market capitalization now stands at $217 billion, which is enough to surpass the combined value of its four main competitors. However, unless Ether consistently outperforms these rivals, sentiment is unlikely to improve. Some traders have high hopes for the upcoming ‘Pectra’ network upgrade , but current derivatives data does not reflect a bullish outlook. Ether’s decline has also coincided with weak demand for the Ethereum spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States. Institutional interest was lacking, despite ETH’s price rising from $2,400 to $4,000 between October and December 2024. In contrast, Bitcoin ETFs saw assets more than double, growing from $50 billion in October 2024 to $110 billion currently. Ethereum leads in TVL, but there’s a catch Although Ethereum remains dominant in terms of total value locked (TVL), it has struggled to match Solana’s integrated user experience or Tron’s dominance in the stablecoin sector . Traders appear uninterested in Ethereum’s higher decentralization or improved security, especially for activities involving frequent deposits and withdrawals, where layer-2 solutions provide limited benefits. The absence of demand for leveraged bullish ETH positions does not necessarily mean that professional traders expect further price declines. If whales and market makers were unwilling to offer downside protection, this would be reflected in the ETH options markets, signaling increased risk of a market downturn. ETH 30-day options skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas.ch Contrary to some expectations, put (sell) options are trading at levels similar to call (buy) options. Notably, professional traders are now more comfortable with downside risks than they were two weeks ago. While ETH derivatives are not signaling strong bullish sentiment, they also do not suggest that professional traders are worried about further declines at current price levels. Related: 3 Ethereum charts flash signal last seen in 2017 when ETH price rallied 25,000% There is a chance that the upcoming ‘Pectra’ network upgrade could positively affect Ether’s price. Scheduled for May 7, this event might renew investor interest in the project by closing the gap with some of its competitors. Staking mechanisms designed for institutional investors could result in more ETH being locked in validator nodes, reducing the circulating supply. Historically, Ethereum upgrades have often been associated with brief spikes in ETH’s price. This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
