This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe . As global markets react to President Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariffs , the post-election optimism that the new administration would bust open the US IPO window is wavering. An international trade war isn’t exactly the most ideal backdrop for entering the public market, and Trump just upped the ante. Of course, any company can go public whenever it wants — it’s not like there’s an actual regulatory window — but it’s best to avoid entering the market during a major downturn. A wave of first-quarter IPO and M&A announcements were penned at the end of 2024, when the prospect of tax cuts and deregulation had bankers and VCs riding high. Now, tariffs, rising fears of a recession and slower growth have them taking a step back. We could also see funding slow. After all, venture firms invest in startups because they see a light at the end of the tunnel: a successful exit via acquisition or public market debut. A poor IPO market limits exit strategy options. The longer the trade war rages on, the worse things could get for US startup funding. Even so, the environment didn’t stop stablecoin issuer Circle from moving forward with its IPO plans this week. I’d say a company that generates most of its revenue from interest earned on US Treasurys, and which sells an intangible product, is fairly insulated from Trump’s trade policies, at least directly. It’s not like USDC is shipped from China. Still, though, we’re in a risk-off era, which doesn’t usually bode well for crypto equities. Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters: Blockworks Daily : The newsletter that helps thousands of investors understand crypto and the markets, by Byron Gilliam. Empire : Start your morning with the top news and analysis to inform your day in crypto. Forward Guidance : Reporting and analysis on the growing intersection of crypto and macroeconomics, policy and finance. 0xResearch : Alpha directly in your inbox. Market highlights, data, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance and more. Lightspeed : Built for Solana investors, developers and community members. The latest from one of crypto’s hottest networks. The Drop : For crypto collectors and traders, covering apps, games, memes and more. Supply Shock : Tracking Bitcoin’s rise from internet plaything worth less than a penny to global phenomenon disrupting money as we know it.
