Wall Street Bleeds $2.85T as Polymarket Degens Bet on Recession, Now a 49% Probability

Speculators on Polymarket are wagering substantial sums on a contract gauging the likelihood of a U.S. economic downturn by 2025. After President Donald Trump’s divisive tariff policy was announced, the probability implied by market activity has risen to nearly 50%. Tariffs, Tumbles and Trades On April 2, 2025, President Trump declared the implementation of “Liberation