Ethereum (ETH) has slipped 5.5% in the past seven days, with today’s decline adding another 1.4% as prices struggle near $4,400. Yet, despite the turbulence, derivatives data shows remarkable resilience. According to CryptoQuant, Binance’s Ethereum open interest (OI) has remained steady above $8.4 billion, even after ETH dipped below $4,400 this week. Typically, sharp price pullbacks trigger a significant drop in OI as traders unwind leveraged positions. This time, however, ETH traders are holding firm, suggesting either expectations of a rebound or a lack of conviction in further downside momentum. The moderation in OI contraction , down just 3.4% in 24 hours compared to -6.25% earlier this week, further supports the idea that aggressive deleveraging is losing steam. Ethereum Buyers Absorbing Pressure Despite Negative Flows Market sentiment still leans bearish, with Binance’s Net Taker Volume consistently negative, ranging between -1.08 billion and -1.11 billion. This indicates sellers remain aggressive. However, the fact that OI is holding steady suggests buyers are quietly absorbing pressure rather than retreating completely. Spot market activity adds another layer of optimism. Daily exchange withdrawals have regularly exceeded 120,000 ETH across platforms like Binance and Kraken. Such outflows reduce sell-side liquidity and hint at longer-term accumulation strategies. Whether these flows reflect institutional custodial moves or retail positioning, they tighten exchange reserves and create conditions less favorable for extended sell-offs. A Possible Bear Trap Before “Uptober”? Technically, Ethereum’s chart resembles a bearish head-and-shoulders formation, raising alarms about further downside. Yet, some analysts argue this could be one of the “biggest bear traps” forming in the market. Crypto strategist Johnny Woo pointed to the $3,800–$4,100 range as a key support zone. Should ETH hold above this level, traders sidelined by bearish sentiment may be forced to re-enter at higher levels, fueling an upside reversal. Historically, October has often brought relief rallies, dubbed “Uptober” by traders, suggesting that Ethereum’s current weakness might set the stage for a surprise rebound. For now, Ethereum faces the challenge of shaking off September’s pressure while holding critical support. If buyers continue absorbing sell-side flows and OI stability persists, the stage could be set for a bullish counterattack heading into the final quarter of 2025. Cover image from ChatGPT, ETHUSD chart from Tradingview
